feat: separate confidence from reasoning completeness

components/graph-update-view.jsx

@@ -66,6 +66,11 @@ export default function GraphUpdateView({ updateResult }) {
         <div className="text-xs text-gray-600">
           {node.kind} · {node.confidence}
         </div>
+        {node.confidenceAssessment && (
+          <div className="text-xs text-gray-600">
+            evidence {node.confidenceAssessment.evidenceConfidence} · completeness {node.confidenceAssessment.completenessStatus} · conclusion {node.confidenceAssessment.conclusionConfidence}
+          </div>
+        )}
         {(update?.previousStatus || update?.newStatus || node.status) && (
           <div className="text-xs text-gray-700">
             {update?.previousStatus ? `Previous status: ${update.previousStatus}` : null}

components/situation-graph-view.jsx

@@ -40,6 +40,11 @@ function NodeGroup({
               <span className="font-medium text-gray-900">{node.label}</span>
               <NodeBadge tone="blue">{node.status}</NodeBadge>
               <NodeBadge tone="green">{node.confidence}</NodeBadge>
+              {node.confidenceAssessment?.completenessStatus && (
+                <NodeBadge tone="purple">
+                  completeness: {node.confidenceAssessment.completenessStatus}
+                </NodeBadge>
+              )}
               {resolvedNodeIds.has(node.id) && (
                 <NodeBadge tone="red">resolved unknown</NodeBadge>
               )}
@@ -59,6 +64,12 @@ function NodeGroup({
             {node.description && node.description !== node.label && (
               <p className="mt-1 text-gray-600">{node.description}</p>
             )}
+            {node.confidenceAssessment && (
+              <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">
+                evidence: {node.confidenceAssessment.evidenceConfidence} ·
+                conclusion: {node.confidenceAssessment.conclusionConfidence}
+              </p>
+            )}
           </li>
         ))}
       </ul>

docs/v0.6-atomicity-experiment.md

@@ -119,6 +119,8 @@ rather than asking the full broad explanation node directly.
 
 Recursive reasoning is complete only when decomposition and reconstruction are both deterministic.
 
+Confidence must not outrun completeness or evidence.
+
 For this experiment, reconstruction now behaves as follows:
 
 - when a child unknown resolves, that child keeps its own resolved status and answer evidence
@@ -132,10 +134,26 @@ For the current conservative completion rule:
 - **one resolved child** → parent becomes `provisional` with higher confidence, but remains unresolved
 - **all direct child unknowns resolved** → parent resolves deterministically with `high` confidence
 
+The confidence model is now explicitly separated into:
+
+- **evidence confidence**: how trustworthy the currently attached support is
+- **completeness**: whether the required direct child structure is empty, partial, or complete
+- **conclusion confidence**: how strongly the current parent state is justified given both evidence and completeness
+
+Deterministic propagation rules now enforce:
+
+- one resolved child may raise evidence confidence
+- unresolved direct children cap conclusion confidence
+- contradictory direct children block high conclusion confidence
+- duplicate evidence does not increase confidence
+- status changes do not raise confidence on their own
+- parent resolution still requires the separate completion rule
+
 Example progression:
 
 - parent before: `unknown`, `medium`
-- after resolving `How the two observations were measured`: parent becomes `provisional`, `high`
+- after resolving `How the two observations were measured`: parent becomes `provisional`, `medium`
+- evidence confidence becomes `high`, completeness becomes `partial`, conclusion confidence becomes `medium`
 - next sibling becomes selectable and the engine moves on without recreating the resolved child
 
 ## Interpretation

lib/graph/apply-proposal.js

@@ -439,6 +439,30 @@ function appendUniqueValue(values = [], nextValue) {
     : values;
 }
 
+function getNodeConfidenceAssessment(node) {
+  return (
+    node?.confidenceAssessment || {
+      evidenceConfidence: node?.confidence ?? "medium",
+      completenessStatus:
+        node?.status === "resolved"
+          ? "complete"
+          : node?.status === "provisional"
+            ? "partial"
+            : "empty",
+      conclusionConfidence:
+        node?.status === "resolved"
+          ? (node?.confidence ?? "high")
+          : node?.status === "provisional"
+            ? (node?.confidence ?? "medium")
+            : "low",
+    }
+  );
+}
+
+function confidenceFromAssessment(assessment) {
+  return assessment?.conclusionConfidence ?? "medium";
+}
+
 function upsertProposalNodeUpdate(proposalSnapshot, update) {
   const existing = proposalSnapshot.updatedNodes.find(
     (candidate) => candidate.nodeId === update.nodeId,
@@ -521,16 +545,6 @@ function buildAncestorChain(graph, node) {
         queue.push(candidate.id);
       }
     }
-
-    for (const edge of graph.edges || []) {
-      if (
-        edge.fromNodeId !== parentNode.id &&
-        edge.toNodeId === parentNode.id &&
-        edge.relationship === "depends_on"
-      ) {
-        queue.push(edge.fromNodeId);
-      }
-    }
   }
 
   return chain;
@@ -562,28 +576,83 @@ function computeParentProgressState(graph, parentNode) {
   const progressedChildren = childUnknowns.filter((child) =>
     ["resolved", "provisional"].includes(child.status),
   );
+  const contradictoryChildren = childUnknowns.filter(
+    (child) => child.status === "contradicted",
+  );
   const totalChildren = childUnknowns.length;
+  const resolvedCount = resolvedChildren.length;
+  const unresolvedCount = childUnknowns.filter(
+    (child) => child.status !== "resolved",
+  ).length;
+  const beforeAssessment = getNodeConfidenceAssessment(parentNode);
 
   if (totalChildren === 0) {
+    const nextAssessment = {
+      evidenceConfidence: beforeAssessment.evidenceConfidence,
+      completenessStatus: beforeAssessment.completenessStatus,
+      conclusionConfidence: beforeAssessment.conclusionConfidence,
+    };
     return {
       totalChildren,
       resolvedChildren,
       progressedChildren,
+      contradictoryChildren,
       nextStatus: parentNode.status,
-      nextConfidence: parentNode.confidence,
+      nextConfidence: confidenceFromAssessment(nextAssessment),
+      nextConfidenceAssessment: nextAssessment,
       parentResolved: parentNode.status === "resolved",
+      confidenceCapReason: "no_child_structure",
       reason: "Parent has no child unknowns to aggregate.",
     };
   }
 
+  let nextAssessment;
+  let confidenceCapReason;
+
+  if (contradictoryChildren.length > 0) {
+    nextAssessment = {
+      evidenceConfidence: resolvedCount > 0 ? "medium" : "low",
+      completenessStatus: resolvedCount === 0 ? "empty" : "partial",
+      conclusionConfidence: "low",
+    };
+    confidenceCapReason = "contradictory_direct_children";
+  } else if (resolvedCount === 0) {
+    nextAssessment = {
+      evidenceConfidence: "low",
+      completenessStatus: "empty",
+      conclusionConfidence: "low",
+    };
+    confidenceCapReason = "no_resolved_direct_children";
+  } else if (resolvedCount < totalChildren) {
+    nextAssessment = {
+      evidenceConfidence: "high",
+      completenessStatus: "partial",
+      conclusionConfidence: "medium",
+    };
+    confidenceCapReason = "unresolved_direct_children_cap_conclusion";
+  } else {
+    nextAssessment = {
+      evidenceConfidence: "high",
+      completenessStatus: "complete",
+      conclusionConfidence: "high",
+    };
+    confidenceCapReason = null;
+  }
+
   if (resolvedChildren.length === totalChildren) {
     return {
       totalChildren,
       resolvedChildren,
       progressedChildren,
+      contradictoryChildren,
       nextStatus: "resolved",
-      nextConfidence: "high",
+      nextConfidence: confidenceFromAssessment(nextAssessment),
+      nextConfidenceAssessment: nextAssessment,
       parentResolved: true,
+      resolvedDirectChildren: resolvedCount,
+      unresolvedDirectChildren: unresolvedCount,
+      contradictoryDirectChildren: contradictoryChildren.length,
+      confidenceCapReason,
       reason:
         "All direct child unknowns are resolved, so the parent can now resolve deterministically.",
     };
@@ -594,9 +663,15 @@ function computeParentProgressState(graph, parentNode) {
       totalChildren,
       resolvedChildren,
       progressedChildren,
+      contradictoryChildren,
       nextStatus: "provisional",
-      nextConfidence: "high",
+      nextConfidence: confidenceFromAssessment(nextAssessment),
+      nextConfidenceAssessment: nextAssessment,
       parentResolved: false,
+      resolvedDirectChildren: resolvedCount,
+      unresolvedDirectChildren: unresolvedCount,
+      contradictoryDirectChildren: contradictoryChildren.length,
+      confidenceCapReason,
       reason:
         "At least one direct child has been progressed, so the parent becomes provisional but remains unresolved until all direct children are resolved.",
     };
@@ -606,9 +681,15 @@ function computeParentProgressState(graph, parentNode) {
     totalChildren,
     resolvedChildren,
     progressedChildren,
+    contradictoryChildren,
     nextStatus: parentNode.status,
-    nextConfidence: parentNode.confidence,
+    nextConfidence: confidenceFromAssessment(nextAssessment),
+    nextConfidenceAssessment: nextAssessment,
     parentResolved: parentNode.status === "resolved",
+    resolvedDirectChildren: resolvedCount,
+    unresolvedDirectChildren: unresolvedCount,
+    contradictoryDirectChildren: contradictoryChildren.length,
+    confidenceCapReason,
     reason: "No direct child progress exists yet for the parent.",
   };
 }
@@ -635,6 +716,17 @@ export function propagateResolvedChildEvidence({
       parentStatusAfter: null,
       parentConfidenceBefore: null,
       parentConfidenceAfter: null,
+      evidenceConfidenceBefore: null,
+      evidenceConfidenceAfter: null,
+      completenessBefore: null,
+      completenessAfter: null,
+      conclusionConfidenceBefore: null,
+      conclusionConfidenceAfter: null,
+      resolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+      unresolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+      contradictoryDirectChildren: 0,
+      confidenceCapReason: null,
+      ancestorPropagationStoppedReason: "no_resolved_child_propagation_needed",
       affectedAncestorIds: [],
       nextSelectedSibling: null,
       parentResolved: false,
@@ -646,6 +738,7 @@ export function propagateResolvedChildEvidence({
   syncParentChildReferences(graph);
   const propagationEvents = [];
   const affectedAncestorIds = new Set();
+  let ancestorPropagationStoppedReason = "no_ancestor_state_changed";
 
   for (const resolvedChildNode of resolvedChildNodes) {
     const liveChildNode = graph.nodes.find(
@@ -662,10 +755,24 @@ export function propagateResolvedChildEvidence({
     for (const ancestorNode of ancestorChain) {
       const beforeStatus = ancestorNode.status;
       const beforeConfidence = ancestorNode.confidence;
+      const beforeAssessment = getNodeConfidenceAssessment(ancestorNode);
       const progressState = computeParentProgressState(graph, ancestorNode);
 
       ancestorNode.status = progressState.nextStatus;
       ancestorNode.confidence = progressState.nextConfidence;
+      ancestorNode.confidenceAssessment =
+        progressState.nextConfidenceAssessment;
+
+      if (
+        beforeStatus === progressState.nextStatus &&
+        beforeConfidence === progressState.nextConfidence &&
+        JSON.stringify(beforeAssessment) ===
+          JSON.stringify(progressState.nextConfidenceAssessment)
+      ) {
+        continue;
+      }
+
+      ancestorPropagationStoppedReason = "ancestor_state_changed";
 
       if (progressState.parentResolved) {
         ensureResolvedUnknownId(proposalSnapshot, ancestorNode.id);
@@ -688,6 +795,19 @@ export function propagateResolvedChildEvidence({
         parentStatusAfter: progressState.nextStatus,
         parentConfidenceBefore: beforeConfidence,
         parentConfidenceAfter: progressState.nextConfidence,
+        evidenceConfidenceBefore: beforeAssessment.evidenceConfidence,
+        evidenceConfidenceAfter:
+          progressState.nextConfidenceAssessment.evidenceConfidence,
+        completenessBefore: beforeAssessment.completenessStatus,
+        completenessAfter:
+          progressState.nextConfidenceAssessment.completenessStatus,
+        conclusionConfidenceBefore: beforeAssessment.conclusionConfidence,
+        conclusionConfidenceAfter:
+          progressState.nextConfidenceAssessment.conclusionConfidence,
+        resolvedDirectChildren: progressState.resolvedDirectChildren,
+        unresolvedDirectChildren: progressState.unresolvedDirectChildren,
+        contradictoryDirectChildren: progressState.contradictoryDirectChildren,
+        confidenceCapReason: progressState.confidenceCapReason,
         parentResolved: progressState.parentResolved,
         reason: progressState.reason,
       });
@@ -717,6 +837,17 @@ export function propagateResolvedChildEvidence({
     parentStatusAfter: firstEvent?.parentStatusAfter ?? null,
     parentConfidenceBefore: firstEvent?.parentConfidenceBefore ?? null,
     parentConfidenceAfter: firstEvent?.parentConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    evidenceConfidenceBefore: firstEvent?.evidenceConfidenceBefore ?? null,
+    evidenceConfidenceAfter: firstEvent?.evidenceConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    completenessBefore: firstEvent?.completenessBefore ?? null,
+    completenessAfter: firstEvent?.completenessAfter ?? null,
+    conclusionConfidenceBefore: firstEvent?.conclusionConfidenceBefore ?? null,
+    conclusionConfidenceAfter: firstEvent?.conclusionConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    resolvedDirectChildren: firstEvent?.resolvedDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    unresolvedDirectChildren: firstEvent?.unresolvedDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    contradictoryDirectChildren: firstEvent?.contradictoryDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    confidenceCapReason: firstEvent?.confidenceCapReason ?? null,
+    ancestorPropagationStoppedReason,
     affectedAncestorIds: [...affectedAncestorIds],
     nextSelectedSibling:
       siblingSelection?.status === "selected" ? siblingSelection.nodeId : null,
@@ -1767,6 +1898,20 @@ export function applyValidatedProposal({
   const parentStatusAfter = propagationResult.parentStatusAfter;
   const parentConfidenceBefore = propagationResult.parentConfidenceBefore;
   const parentConfidenceAfter = propagationResult.parentConfidenceAfter;
+  const evidenceConfidenceBefore = propagationResult.evidenceConfidenceBefore;
+  const evidenceConfidenceAfter = propagationResult.evidenceConfidenceAfter;
+  const completenessBefore = propagationResult.completenessBefore;
+  const completenessAfter = propagationResult.completenessAfter;
+  const conclusionConfidenceBefore =
+    propagationResult.conclusionConfidenceBefore;
+  const conclusionConfidenceAfter = propagationResult.conclusionConfidenceAfter;
+  const resolvedDirectChildren = propagationResult.resolvedDirectChildren;
+  const unresolvedDirectChildren = propagationResult.unresolvedDirectChildren;
+  const contradictoryDirectChildren =
+    propagationResult.contradictoryDirectChildren;
+  const confidenceCapReason = propagationResult.confidenceCapReason;
+  const ancestorPropagationStoppedReason =
+    propagationResult.ancestorPropagationStoppedReason;
   const affectedAncestorIds = propagationResult.affectedAncestorIds;
   const nextSelectedSibling = propagationResult.nextSelectedSibling;
   const parentResolved = propagationResult.parentResolved;
@@ -1894,6 +2039,17 @@ export function applyValidatedProposal({
     parentStatusAfter,
     parentConfidenceBefore,
     parentConfidenceAfter,
+    evidenceConfidenceBefore,
+    evidenceConfidenceAfter,
+    completenessBefore,
+    completenessAfter,
+    conclusionConfidenceBefore,
+    conclusionConfidenceAfter,
+    resolvedDirectChildren,
+    unresolvedDirectChildren,
+    contradictoryDirectChildren,
+    confidenceCapReason,
+    ancestorPropagationStoppedReason,
     affectedAncestorIds,
     nextSelectedSibling,
     parentResolved,

lib/graph/orchestrator.js

@@ -110,6 +110,17 @@ function buildUpdateDiagnostics({
   parentStatusAfter,
   parentConfidenceBefore,
   parentConfidenceAfter,
+  evidenceConfidenceBefore,
+  evidenceConfidenceAfter,
+  completenessBefore,
+  completenessAfter,
+  conclusionConfidenceBefore,
+  conclusionConfidenceAfter,
+  resolvedDirectChildren,
+  unresolvedDirectChildren,
+  contradictoryDirectChildren,
+  confidenceCapReason,
+  ancestorPropagationStoppedReason,
   affectedAncestorIds,
   nextSelectedSibling,
   parentResolved,
@@ -163,6 +174,17 @@ function buildUpdateDiagnostics({
     parentStatusAfter: parentStatusAfter ?? null,
     parentConfidenceBefore: parentConfidenceBefore ?? null,
     parentConfidenceAfter: parentConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    evidenceConfidenceBefore: evidenceConfidenceBefore ?? null,
+    evidenceConfidenceAfter: evidenceConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    completenessBefore: completenessBefore ?? null,
+    completenessAfter: completenessAfter ?? null,
+    conclusionConfidenceBefore: conclusionConfidenceBefore ?? null,
+    conclusionConfidenceAfter: conclusionConfidenceAfter ?? null,
+    resolvedDirectChildren: resolvedDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    unresolvedDirectChildren: unresolvedDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    contradictoryDirectChildren: contradictoryDirectChildren ?? 0,
+    confidenceCapReason: confidenceCapReason ?? null,
+    ancestorPropagationStoppedReason: ancestorPropagationStoppedReason ?? null,
     affectedAncestorIds: affectedAncestorIds ?? [],
     nextSelectedSibling: nextSelectedSibling ?? null,
     parentResolved: parentResolved ?? false,
@@ -440,6 +462,17 @@ async function updateCaseWithDependencies(body, dependencies = {}) {
             parentStatusAfter: null,
             parentConfidenceBefore: null,
             parentConfidenceAfter: null,
+            evidenceConfidenceBefore: null,
+            evidenceConfidenceAfter: null,
+            completenessBefore: null,
+            completenessAfter: null,
+            conclusionConfidenceBefore: null,
+            conclusionConfidenceAfter: null,
+            resolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+            unresolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+            contradictoryDirectChildren: 0,
+            confidenceCapReason: null,
+            ancestorPropagationStoppedReason: null,
             affectedAncestorIds: [],
             nextSelectedSibling: null,
             parentResolved: false,
@@ -508,6 +541,20 @@ async function updateCaseWithDependencies(body, dependencies = {}) {
         parentStatusAfter: applicationResult.parentStatusAfter,
         parentConfidenceBefore: applicationResult.parentConfidenceBefore,
         parentConfidenceAfter: applicationResult.parentConfidenceAfter,
+        evidenceConfidenceBefore: applicationResult.evidenceConfidenceBefore,
+        evidenceConfidenceAfter: applicationResult.evidenceConfidenceAfter,
+        completenessBefore: applicationResult.completenessBefore,
+        completenessAfter: applicationResult.completenessAfter,
+        conclusionConfidenceBefore:
+          applicationResult.conclusionConfidenceBefore,
+        conclusionConfidenceAfter: applicationResult.conclusionConfidenceAfter,
+        resolvedDirectChildren: applicationResult.resolvedDirectChildren,
+        unresolvedDirectChildren: applicationResult.unresolvedDirectChildren,
+        contradictoryDirectChildren:
+          applicationResult.contradictoryDirectChildren,
+        confidenceCapReason: applicationResult.confidenceCapReason,
+        ancestorPropagationStoppedReason:
+          applicationResult.ancestorPropagationStoppedReason,
         affectedAncestorIds: applicationResult.affectedAncestorIds,
         nextSelectedSibling: applicationResult.nextSelectedSibling,
         parentResolved: applicationResult.parentResolved,
@@ -560,6 +607,17 @@ async function updateCaseWithDependencies(body, dependencies = {}) {
       parentStatusAfter: null,
       parentConfidenceBefore: null,
       parentConfidenceAfter: null,
+      evidenceConfidenceBefore: null,
+      evidenceConfidenceAfter: null,
+      completenessBefore: null,
+      completenessAfter: null,
+      conclusionConfidenceBefore: null,
+      conclusionConfidenceAfter: null,
+      resolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+      unresolvedDirectChildren: 0,
+      contradictoryDirectChildren: 0,
+      confidenceCapReason: null,
+      ancestorPropagationStoppedReason: null,
       affectedAncestorIds: [],
       nextSelectedSibling: null,
       parentResolved: false,

lib/graph/schema.js

@@ -36,6 +36,20 @@ export const ConfidenceLevel = /** @type {const} */ ({
   high: "high",
 });
 
+export const CompletenessStatus = /** @type {const} */ ({
+  empty: "empty",
+  partial: "partial",
+  complete: "complete",
+});
+
+export const confidenceAssessmentSchema = z
+  .object({
+    evidenceConfidence: z.enum(Object.values(ConfidenceLevel)),
+    completenessStatus: z.enum(Object.values(CompletenessStatus)),
+    conclusionConfidence: z.enum(Object.values(ConfidenceLevel)),
+  })
+  .strict();
+
 // ── SituationNode ────────────────────────────────────
 
 export const situationNodeSchema = z.object({
@@ -45,6 +59,7 @@ export const situationNodeSchema = z.object({
   kind: z.enum(Object.values(SituationKind)),
   status: z.enum(Object.values(SituationStatus)),
   confidence: z.enum(Object.values(ConfidenceLevel)),
+  confidenceAssessment: confidenceAssessmentSchema.optional(),
   value: z.union([z.string(), z.number(), z.null()]).nullable().optional(),
   unit: z.string().nullable().optional(),
   evidenceIds: z.array(z.string()).default([]),
@@ -188,6 +203,7 @@ export function makeNode(opts) {
     kind: opts.kind ?? "observation",
     status: opts.status ?? "unknown",
     confidence: opts.confidence ?? "medium",
+    confidenceAssessment: opts.confidenceAssessment,
     value: opts.value ?? null,
     unit: opts.unit ?? null,
     evidenceIds: opts.evidenceIds ?? [],

tests/graph/confidence-propagation.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { applyValidatedProposal } from "@/lib/graph/apply-proposal.js";
+import { makeEdge, makeGraph, makeNode } from "@/lib/graph/schema.js";
+
+function makeFixture() {
+  const parent = makeNode({
+    id: "n-parent",
+    label: "Explanation for why revenue increased while cash fell",
+    description:
+      "Need to understand what change or event could explain why these observations differ, because that is needed to investigate their relationship.",
+    kind: "unknown",
+    status: "unknown",
+    confidence: "medium",
+  });
+  const children = [
+    makeNode({
+      id: "n-child-1",
+      label: "How the two observations were measured",
+      description: "Need evidence about the measure used for each observation.",
+      kind: "unknown",
+      status: "unknown",
+      confidence: "medium",
+      parentId: parent.id,
+    }),
+    makeNode({
+      id: "n-child-2",
+      label: "Whether the two observations reflect different timing",
+      description:
+        "Need to know whether the two observations reflect different timing.",
+      kind: "unknown",
+      status: "unknown",
+      confidence: "medium",
+      parentId: parent.id,
+    }),
+    makeNode({
+      id: "n-child-3",
+      label: "Possible change mainly affecting revenue",
+      description:
+        "Need to know whether a possible change mainly affected revenue.",
+      kind: "unknown",
+      status: "unknown",
+      confidence: "medium",
+      parentId: parent.id,
+    }),
+    makeNode({
+      id: "n-child-4",
+      label: "Possible one-off event during the period",
+      description:
+        "Need to know whether a possible one-off event happened during the period.",
+      kind: "unknown",
+      status: "unknown",
+      confidence: "medium",
+      parentId: parent.id,
+    }),
+  ];
+
+  return makeGraph({
+    centralStatement: "Revenue increased while cash fell.",
+    nodes: [parent, ...children],
+    edges: children.map((child, index) =>
+      makeEdge({
+        id: `e-${index + 1}`,
+        fromNodeId: child.id,
+        toNodeId: parent.id,
+        relationship: "depends_on",
+        description: `${child.label} feeds the parent.`,
+      }),
+    ),
+    activeUnknownNodeId: "n-child-1",
+    resolvedNodeIds: [],
+    currentSummary: "confidence propagation fixture",
+  });
+}
+
+function makeProposal({ resolvedIds, contradictedIds = [] }) {
+  return {
+    addedNodes: [
+      makeNode({
+        id: "n-anchor",
+        label: "Update anchor",
+        description:
+          "Anchor state introduced by the answer because the update must contain a meaningful change.",
+        kind: "state",
+        status: "known",
+        confidence: "low",
+      }),
+    ],
+    updatedNodes: [
+      ...resolvedIds.map((id) => ({
+        nodeId: id,
+        previousStatus: "unknown",
+        newStatus: "resolved",
+        previousValue: null,
+        newValue: `answer:${id}`,
+        reason: "resolved child",
+      })),
+      ...contradictedIds.map((id) => ({
+        nodeId: id,
+        previousStatus: "unknown",
+        newStatus: "contradicted",
+        previousValue: null,
+        newValue: `contradiction:${id}`,
+        reason: "contradictory child evidence",
+      })),
+    ],
+    addedEdges: [],
+    removedEdgeIds: [],
+    resolvedUnknownNodeIds: resolvedIds,
+    affectedNodeIds: [],
+    selectedQuestion: null,
+  };
+}
+
+describe("confidence propagation", () => {
+  it("one of four children resolved does not yield high conclusion confidence", () => {
+    const result = applyValidatedProposal({
+      situationGraph: makeFixture(),
+      proposal: makeProposal({ resolvedIds: ["n-child-1"] }),
+      previousQuestion:
+        "What evidence would clarify how the two observations were measured?",
+      answer: "Same accounting period and same management accounts.",
+    });
+
+    const parent = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
+      (n) => n.id === "n-parent",
+    );
+    expect(parent.status).toBe("provisional");
+    expect(parent.confidence).toBe("medium");
+    expect(parent.confidenceAssessment).toEqual({
+      evidenceConfidence: "high",
+      completenessStatus: "partial",
+      conclusionConfidence: "medium",
+    });
+    expect(result.confidenceCapReason).toBe(
+      "unresolved_direct_children_cap_conclusion",
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("all children resolved with coherent evidence may yield high confidence", () => {
+    const result = applyValidatedProposal({
+      situationGraph: makeFixture(),
+      proposal: makeProposal({
+        resolvedIds: ["n-child-1", "n-child-2", "n-child-3", "n-child-4"],
+      }),
+      previousQuestion:
+        "What evidence would clarify how the two observations were measured?",
+      answer: "All direct child questions are answered.",
+    });
+
+    const parent = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
+      (n) => n.id === "n-parent",
+    );
+    expect(parent.status).toBe("resolved");
+    expect(parent.confidenceAssessment).toEqual({
+      evidenceConfidence: "high",
+      completenessStatus: "complete",
+      conclusionConfidence: "high",
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("contradictory child evidence prevents high confidence", () => {
+    const result = applyValidatedProposal({
+      situationGraph: makeFixture(),
+      proposal: makeProposal({
+        resolvedIds: ["n-child-1"],
+        contradictedIds: ["n-child-2"],
+      }),
+      previousQuestion:
+        "What evidence would clarify how the two observations were measured?",
+      answer: "One child resolved, another contradicted.",
+    });
+
+    const parent = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
+      (n) => n.id === "n-parent",
+    );
+    expect(parent.confidenceAssessment.conclusionConfidence).toBe("low");
+    expect(result.confidenceCapReason).toBe("contradictory_direct_children");
+  });
+});

tests/graph/upward-propagation.test.js

@@ -255,7 +255,16 @@ describe("upward propagation", () => {
       expect(result.parentStatusBefore).toBe("unknown");
       expect(result.parentStatusAfter).toBe("provisional");
       expect(result.parentConfidenceBefore).toBe("medium");
-      expect(result.parentConfidenceAfter).toBe("high");
+      expect(result.parentConfidenceAfter).toBe("medium");
+      expect(result.evidenceConfidenceBefore).toBe("medium");
+      expect(result.evidenceConfidenceAfter).toBe("high");
+      expect(result.completenessBefore).toBe("empty");
+      expect(result.completenessAfter).toBe("partial");
+      expect(result.conclusionConfidenceBefore).toBe("low");
+      expect(result.conclusionConfidenceAfter).toBe("medium");
+      expect(result.confidenceCapReason).toBe(
+        "unresolved_direct_children_cap_conclusion",
+      );
       expect(result.parentResolved).toBe(false);
       expect(result.affectedAncestorIds).toContain(ids.parent);
       expect(result.affectedAncestorIds).toContain(ids.ancestor);
@@ -276,7 +285,12 @@ describe("upward propagation", () => {
       );
       expect(parentNode).toMatchObject({
         status: "provisional",
-        confidence: "high",
+        confidence: "medium",
+        confidenceAssessment: {
+          evidenceConfidence: "high",
+          completenessStatus: "partial",
+          conclusionConfidence: "medium",
+        },
       });
 
       const ancestorNode = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
@@ -284,7 +298,12 @@ describe("upward propagation", () => {
       );
       expect(ancestorNode).toMatchObject({
         status: "provisional",
-        confidence: "high",
+        confidence: "low",
+        confidenceAssessment: {
+          evidenceConfidence: "low",
+          completenessStatus: "empty",
+          conclusionConfidence: "low",
+        },
       });
 
       const resolvedChild = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
@@ -387,6 +406,14 @@ describe("upward propagation", () => {
     expect(result.resolvedUnknownNodeIds).toContain(ids.parent);
     expect(
       result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find((node) => node.id === ids.parent),
-    ).toMatchObject({ status: "resolved", confidence: "high" });
+    ).toMatchObject({
+      status: "resolved",
+      confidence: "high",
+      confidenceAssessment: {
+        evidenceConfidence: "high",
+        completenessStatus: "complete",
+        conclusionConfidence: "high",
+      },
+    });
   });
 });