test(confidence-engine): capture original current understanding regression fixture
Co-Authored-By: Claude Code <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Claude Code
@@ -0,0 +1,380 @@
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{
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"situationGraph": {
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"edges": [
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{
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"id": "e-sum-n3s41p",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "n3s41p",
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"description": "Approximately £300,000 required development, launch, and support expenditure supports the summary",
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"relationship": "supports"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-sum-njgzefp",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "njgzefp",
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"description": "Prospective enterprise customer signed a letter of intent for £700k over three years at proposed terms supports the summary",
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"relationship": "supports"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-sum-ntyt5f",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "ntyt5f",
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"description": "Final contract for the LOI subject to internal pricing approval within thirty days supports the summary",
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"relationship": "supports"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-sum-nfx5szj",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "nfx5szj",
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"description": "Small software business (decision maker) supports the summary",
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"relationship": "supports"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-sum-nlw3fef",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "nlw3fef",
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"description": "Prospective enterprise customer supports the summary",
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"relationship": "supports"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-unk-nw0dwkz",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "medium",
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"fromNodeId": "nw0dwkz",
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"description": "Whether the remaining expected customers will sign their agreements is an unresolved factor for this situation",
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"relationship": "depends_on"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-unk-nfl7ee3",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "medium",
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"fromNodeId": "nfl7ee3",
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"description": "How delaying the launch by twelve months will affect customer retention is an unresolved factor for this situation",
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"relationship": "depends_on"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-unk-nhgwmv7",
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"toNodeId": "n6fjn9l",
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"confidence": "medium",
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"fromNodeId": "nhgwmv7",
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"description": "Whether competitors will alter market conditions during the next twelve months is an unresolved factor for this situation",
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"relationship": "depends_on"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-rel-r1",
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"toNodeId": "nw0dwkz",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "nwgz8uv",
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"description": "The commercial forecast depends on expected customers signing agreements.",
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"relationship": "depends_on"
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},
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{
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"id": "e-rel-r2",
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"toNodeId": "nwgz8uv",
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"confidence": "high",
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"fromNodeId": "njgzefp",
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"description": "The signed letter of intent for £700k constitutes a known component of the commercial forecast.",
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"relationship": "supports"
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}
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],
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"nodes": [
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{
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"id": "n6fjn9l",
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"kind": "state",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "A software business is weighing an immediate £300,000 product launch against a twelve-month delay, contingent on resolving uncertainties around remaining customer agreements, retention risks from delaying, and potential competitor market shifts.",
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"value": null,
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"status": "provisional",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "medium",
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"description": "Summary of the situation from the scenario text",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "n3s41p",
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"kind": "observation",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Approximately £300,000 required development, launch, and support expenditure",
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"value": null,
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"status": "supported",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "Approximately £300,000 required development, launch, and support expenditure",
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"evidenceIds": [
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"o_cost_expenditure"
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "njgzefp",
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"kind": "observation",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Prospective enterprise customer signed a letter of intent for £700k over three years at proposed terms",
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"value": null,
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"status": "supported",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "Prospective enterprise customer signed a letter of intent for £700k over three years at proposed terms",
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"evidenceIds": [
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"o_loi_signed"
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "ntyt5f",
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"kind": "observation",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Final contract for the LOI subject to internal pricing approval within thirty days",
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"value": null,
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"status": "supported",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "Final contract for the LOI subject to internal pricing approval within thirty days",
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"evidenceIds": [
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"o_pricing_approval_pending"
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "nfx5szj",
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"kind": "observation",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Small software business (decision maker)",
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"value": null,
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"status": "supported",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "Small software business (decision maker)",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "nlw3fef",
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"kind": "observation",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Prospective enterprise customer",
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"value": null,
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"status": "supported",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "Prospective enterprise customer",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "ngg4reo",
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"kind": "metric",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "New software product under consideration for launch",
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"value": null,
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"status": "known",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "high",
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"description": "New software product under consideration for launch",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "nwgz8uv",
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"kind": "metric",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Commercial forecast of up to £1.2 million in first-year revenue",
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"value": null,
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"status": "known",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "medium",
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"description": "Commercial forecast of up to £1.2 million in first-year revenue",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "nw0dwkz",
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"kind": "unknown",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Whether the remaining expected customers will sign their agreements",
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"value": null,
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"status": "unknown",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "medium",
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"description": "Whether the remaining expected customers will sign their agreements",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "nfl7ee3",
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"kind": "unknown",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "How delaying the launch by twelve months will affect customer retention",
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"value": null,
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"status": "unknown",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "medium",
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"description": "How delaying the launch by twelve months will affect customer retention",
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"evidenceIds": []
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},
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{
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"id": "nhgwmv7",
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"kind": "unknown",
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"unit": null,
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"label": "Whether competitors will alter market conditions during the next twelve months",
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"value": null,
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"status": "unknown",
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"affects": [],
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"childIds": [],
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"parentId": null,
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"dependsOn": [],
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"confidence": "medium",
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"description": "Whether competitors will alter market conditions during the next twelve months",
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"evidenceIds": []
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}
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],
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"currentSummary": "Nodes: 1 state, 5 observation, 2 metric, 3 unknown | Edges: 10 total | Unknowns: 3 unresolved",
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"reasoningState": {
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"reasoningStages": [
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{
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"stage": "comparability",
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"status": "confirmed",
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"outcome": "The observations are not competing like-for-like measurements."
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},
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{
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"stage": "relationship",
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"status": "insufficient_information",
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"outcome": "There is not enough structure to classify the relationship safely."
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}
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],
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"relationshipReason": "There is not enough structure to classify the relationship safely.",
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"relationshipStatus": "insufficient_information",
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"comparabilityReason": "The observations are not competing like-for-like measurements.",
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"comparabilityStatus": "confirmed",
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"relationshipAssessed": true,
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"comparabilityEvidence": [],
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"contradictionReasoningAllowed": false
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},
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"resolvedNodeIds": [
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"nw0dwkz",
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"nfl7ee3",
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"nhgwmv7"
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],
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"centralStatement": "We run a small software business and are considering launching a new product this year rather than waiting twelve months.\n\nThe launch would require approximately £300,000 in development, launch and support expenditure.\n\nOur commercial forecast suggests up to £1.2 million in first-year revenue, but this depends on expected customers signing agreements.\n\nOne prospective enterprise customer represents approximately £700,000 of that forecast. They have signed a letter of intent for a three-year agreement at the proposed commercial terms, but the final contract remains subject to internal pricing approval expected within thirty days.\n\nWe do not yet know whether the remaining customers will sign, how delaying the launch would affect customer retention, or whether competitors will change the market during the next twelve months.\n\nWe need to understand the decision and its uncertainties before deciding whether to launch now or wait.",
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"activeUnknownNodeId": "nhgwmv7"
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},
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"findings": [
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{
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"id": "finding-3bw5f0",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:50:06.355Z",
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"proposition": "One enterprise customer has signed an LOI but no binding contract yet.",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0001",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "One enterprise customer has signed an LOI but no binding contract yet.",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nw0dwkz"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-i5zdcq",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:50:06.355Z",
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"proposition": "That customer's final contract execution depends on internal pricing approval expected within thirty days.",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0001",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "That customer's final contract execution depends on internal pricing approval expected within thirty days.",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nw0dwkz"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-hciikc",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:55:45.665Z",
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"proposition": "Absence of reliable evidence linking a twelve-month delay to changes in customer retention",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0002",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "Absence of reliable evidence linking a twelve-month delay to changes in customer retention",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nfl7ee3"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-ybfsm3",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:55:45.665Z",
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"proposition": "Failure to identify which prospective customers would remain interested after a delay",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0002",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "Failure to identify which prospective customers would remain interested after a delay",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nfl7ee3"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-k45vyt",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:55:45.665Z",
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"proposition": "Failure to assess whether customer purchasing decisions would shift due to the delay",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0002",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "Failure to assess whether customer purchasing decisions would shift due to the delay",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nfl7ee3"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-vhftyr",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:55:45.665Z",
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"proposition": "Unestablished impact of competitor activity on customer willingness to wait",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0002",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "Unestablished impact of competitor activity on customer willingness to wait",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nfl7ee3"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-9bgkmw",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T06:55:45.665Z",
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"proposition": "Unknown financial consequences tied to potential customer loss during the delay",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0002",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "Unknown financial consequences tied to potential customer loss during the delay",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nfl7ee3"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-23192q",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T07:01:23.359Z",
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"proposition": "You lack reliable evidence regarding competitors' plans for the next twelve months.",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0003",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "You lack reliable evidence regarding competitors' plans for the next twelve months.",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nhgwmv7"
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},
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{
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"id": "finding-kkh39k",
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"status": "provisional",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-08T07:01:23.359Z",
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"proposition": "You have not established whether competitors will launch similar products, adjust prices, or shift customer expectations.",
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"contributionId": "contrib-0003",
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"userDisposition": null,
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"sourceObservation": "You have not established whether competitors will launch similar products, adjust prices, or shift customer expectations.",
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"originatingTargetNodeId": "nhgwmv7"
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}
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]
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}
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