experiment: confirm live explicit sufficiency closure

2026-08-15 12:43:56 +01:00
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 What this proves: The deterministic stripping gate from 60B.80 prevents premature model-led terminal closure of parent decisions when no explicit sufficiency confirmation is present, and allows State B to fire naturally through the existing questioning path.

 **Doc:** docs/experiment-60b81.md
+
+### Experiment 60B.82 — Live Explicit Confirmation Closure Confirmed (2026-08-15)
+
+**Type:** Paired live observation — explicit-confirmation positive branch (1 update call, production route)
+
+**Input:** Answer with explicit sufficiency confirmation: *"The enterprise customer has now confirmed in writing that they will not sign if we launch this year, so the £700,000 of expected annual revenue from them will not be received. There are no other material uncertainties between launching this year and waiting twelve months."*
+
+**Classification: A — LIVE EXPLICIT-CONFIRMATION CLOSURE CONFIRMED**
+
+Observed:
+- Customer resolved ("Will not sign", negative meaning preserved)
+- Decision terminal (status=resolved, value=null)
+- Both nodes resolved: ["n_enterprise_customer_signing", "n_product_launch_decision"]
+- finalActiveUnknownNodeId = null
+- finalSelectedQuestion = null
+- No new nodes or edges introduced
+- Financial revision correctly applied (£1.2M → £500k reflects confirmed £700k loss)
+
+What this proves: Explicit sufficiency confirmation flows cleanly through the 60B.80 gate to terminal closure of the parent decision, active target clears, and no question is asked. The paired lifecycle (no confirmation→State B / explicit confirmation→terminal close) is live-baselined in production.
+
+**Doc:** docs/experiment-60b82.md
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+# Experiment 60B.82 — Live Explicit Confirmation Closure Confirmed
+
+**Date:** 2026-08-15
+**Branch:** `feature/decision-closure-ownership-v0.47`
+**Preceded by:** Experiment 60B.81 (live no-confirmation State B path confirmed)
+**Type:** Paired live observation — explicit-confirmation positive branch
+
+## Objective
+
+After 60B.81 proved the negative branch (no confirmation → decision stays open + sufficiency question), answer: does explicit sufficiency confirmation still close the decision cleanly?
+
+```text
+final represented factor resolves
+
+explicit sufficiency confirmation present
+=>
+parent decision may close
+=>
+active target clears
+=>
+no further question
+```
+
+## Method
+
+- **Fixture:** `tests/fixtures/pre-anchored-product-launch-customer-signing.json`
+- **Input (ANSWER_2):** `"The enterprise customer has now confirmed in writing that they will not sign if we launch this year, so the £700,000 of expected annual revenue from them will not be received. There are no other material uncertainties between launching this year and waiting twelve months."`
+- **Crucially present:** `"There are no other material uncertainties"` — explicit sufficiency confirmation
+- **Mode:** updateOnly (1 update call via production HTTP route)
+
+## Result
+
+**Classification: A — LIVE EXPLICIT-CONFIRMATION CLOSURE CONFIRMED**
+
+### Observed
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| Customer status | resolved |
+| Decision status | resolved (terminal) |
+| resolvedUnknownNodeIds | ["n_enterprise_customer_signing", "n_product_launch_decision"] |
+| finalActiveUnknownNodeId | null |
+| finalSelectedQuestion | null |
+| addedNodes | [] |
+| addedEdges | [] |
+| Financial revision | £1.2M/year → £500k/year (correctly reflects £700k enterprise loss) |
+
+### What This Proves
+
+1. Explicit sufficiency confirmation ("no other material uncertainties") flows cleanly through the 60B.80 gate to terminal closure of the parent decision.
+2. Both the paired negative branch (60B.81: no confirmation → State B) and positive branch (60B.82: explicit confirmation → terminal close) are now live-baselined.
+3. The confirmation-gated lifecycle is symmetric and complete in production.
+
+### What Remains Unproven by This Run
+
+- Edge-case confirmation phrasings (implicit, partial, or negated confirmation language).
+- Multi-node simultaneous resolution with confirmation.
+- Confirmation under contradiction reasoning constraints.