test(confidence-engine): control report epistemic comparison inputs

Deterministic test (17 cases) proves A/B inputs are correctly controlled:
- supportedEvidence identical in A and B
- findings identical in A and B
- plausibleInterpretations identical (fixed canonical interpretation) in A and B
- scenarioState identical in A and B
- providerConfig identical in A and B
- only unresolvedQuestions visibility differs (A=hidden, B=canonical)
- unresolved questions excluded from evidence and plausible interpretations
- fixed interpretation carries NON-EVIDENCE epistemic status

Also corrects Loop 2 documentation to reflect that three-category
invariance was NOT established (plausibleInterpretations differed
between calls despite identical input), retaining only the narrower
valid finding: no unresolved Open Question was promoted to evidence.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Code <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-30 11:44:51 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Code
parent ef6592cd91
commit ada83de1db
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@@ -256,7 +256,7 @@ Manual Jenkins deployment pipeline established, version-controlled, and LIVE PRO
- **Branch:** `feature/product-platform-foundation-v0.62` - **Branch:** `feature/product-platform-foundation-v0.62`
- **HEAD:** *(checkpoint commit — see git log for actual SHA)* - **HEAD:** *(checkpoint commit — see git log for actual SHA)*
- **Working tree:** clean - **Working tree:** clean (after Loop 3 apparatus commit)
## Architectural Conclusion ## Architectural Conclusion
@@ -295,6 +295,7 @@ tsx runtime — alias-capable experiment execut
import-only proof — prove startCase() import chain resolves without live calls import-only proof — prove startCase() import chain resolves without live calls
OpenAI reconstruction experiment seam — START_CASE_EXPERIMENT_PROVIDER=openai (experiment-only) OpenAI reconstruction experiment seam — START_CASE_EXPERIMENT_PROVIDER=openai (experiment-only)
focused-deconstruction schema fix — plumbing verified, 48/48 tests pass focused-deconstruction schema fix — plumbing verified, 48/48 tests pass
tests/experimental/report-epistemic-ab-input-control.test.js — deterministic A/B input control apparatus (17 tests, zero live calls)
``` ```
**No other experimental apparatus is currently valid.** Obsolete setups have been removed or superseded. **No other experimental apparatus is currently valid.** Obsolete setups have been removed or superseded.
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> Created by Experiment 27. This document is the starting point for any fresh session working on the Confidence Engine. Read this first, then follow the routing table below to task-specific references. > Created by Experiment 27. This document is the starting point for any fresh session working on the Confidence Engine. Read this first, then follow the routing table below to task-specific references.
## Session Continuity — 2026-09-30 (v0.63)
### Epistemic Completeness Experiment — A/B Comparison, Loops 1-3 (closed)
**Experiment:** Does exposing "What Remains Unresolved" information in the report synthesis prompt cause it to leak into the evidence-backed "understanding" section?
#### Loop 2 (final semantic run — 2/2 valid calls)
Observed:
- unresolved Open Questions were not promoted into supported evidence in either Loop 2 call.
Not established:
- full three-category invariance, because plausibleInterpretations differed between A and B outputs despite identical intended plausible input. Call A produced `plausibleInterpretations = []` while Call B contained one plausible interpretation for the same supplied input. Therefore unresolved visibility was not the sole output difference.
Valid narrow finding:
- No unresolved Open Question was observed being promoted into supported evidence in either call. The ≤50-char summary-length threshold is NOT retained as semantic evidence.
**Known provider format issue (production, untouched by this experiment):** generateReconstruction returns `{ response: { reconstruction: {...}, evidence: {...}, ... }, providerApiPath, providerExecution }`. The `response` is an object containing the full reconstruction structure — not a JSON string. The existing `investigation-overview-synthesis.js` validateOverviewResponse path expects either a string or an object with direct `{understanding, plausibleInterpretations}` keys, but the provider's response envelope wraps these under `response.reconstruction`. **Unresolved production defect — DO NOT FIX without a separate bounded investigation.**
#### Loop 3 (apparatus correction — ZERO live calls)
Built: deterministic test at `tests/experimental/report-epistemic-ab-input-control.test.js` (17 tests, all PASS).
The test proves BEFORE any future model invocation that A/B inputs are correctly controlled: only unresolved-question visibility differs; supportedEvidence, findings, plausibleInterpretations, scenarioState, and providerConfig are identical.
#### Next experimental restart point
- Rerun the two-call comparison using the deterministically controlled A/B apparatus established in Loop 3 (commit `test(confidence-engine): control report epistemic comparison inputs`).
- The fixed plausible interpretation is canonical: "The rise in absolute complaint counts is likely an artifact of both the new CRM tagging system broadening what gets recorded as a complaint, combined with a proportional increase from higher production volume rather than a genuine deterioration in product quality."
- Its epistemic status must remain: **plausible interpretation / NON-EVIDENCE**.
### Tester-Readiness Position
```
controlled external testing: GO
known pre-tester security blockers: none identified
next uncertainty worth reducing: real first-time-user product value, trust and independent usability
```
Do not claim commercial launch readiness, general production scalability, security certification or proven product-market fit.
## 1. What the Confidence Engine Is ## 1. What the Confidence Engine Is
The Confidence Engine helps people decide whether they have enough justified confidence to act on a complicated problem — one step at a time. The Confidence Engine helps people decide whether they have enough justified confidence to act on a complicated problem — one step at a time.
@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
/**
* Deterministic control of report epistemic comparison inputs.
*
* Proves BEFORE any future model invocation that the A/B experiment
* inputs are correctly controlled: only unresolved-question visibility
* differs between A and B; everything else is identical.
*
* No live model calls. No mocking. Pure input-contract verification.
*/
import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
import fixture from "../fixtures/progressed-investigation-manufacturing.json";
const FIXED_PLAUSIBLE =
"The rise in absolute complaint counts is likely an artifact of both the new CRM tagging system broadening what gets recorded as a complaint, combined with a proportional increase from higher production volume rather than a genuine deterioration in product quality.";
function buildABInputs(fix, includeUQ) {
const sg = fix.situationGraph;
const se = sg.nodes.filter(n => n.status === "known" || n.status === "supported").map(n => ({id: n.id, kind: n.kind, status: n.status, label: n.label}));
const fi = fix.findings.filter(f2 => f2.status === "provisional" && f2.userDisposition === null).map(f3 => ({id: f3.id, proposition: f3.proposition}));
const pi = [FIXED_PLAUSIBLE];
const uq = sg.nodes.filter(n => n.kind === "unknown" && n.status === "unknown").map(n => ({id: n.id, label: n.label, description: n.description}));
const ss = {centralStatement: sg.centralStatement, activeUnknownNodeId: sg.activeUnknownNodeId, resolvedNodeIds: [...sg.resolvedNodeIds], nodeCount: sg.nodes.length, edgeCount: sg.edges.length};
const pc = {provider: "ollama", model: process.env.OLLAMA_MODEL || "configured-model"};
return {supportedEvidence: se, findings: fi, plausibleInterpretations: pi, unresolvedQuestions: includeUQ ? [...uq] : [], scenarioState: ss, providerConfig: pc};
}
function deepEqual(a, b) {
if (a === b) return true;
if (a == null || b == null) return false;
if (typeof a !== typeof b) return false;
if (Array.isArray(a)) { if (!Array.isArray(b) || a.length !== b.length) return false; for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) if (!deepEqual(a[i], b[i])) return false; return true; }
if (typeof a === "object") { const kA = Object.keys(a).sort(), kB = Object.keys(b).sort(); if (kA.length !== kB.length) return false; for (let i = 0; i < kA.length; i++) if (kA[i] !== kB[i] || !deepEqual(a[kA[i]], b[kB[i]])) return false; return true; }
return false;
}
describe("Controlled A/B report epistemic comparison inputs", () => {
it("builds canonical input objects for both A and B", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false);
const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
["supportedEvidence","findings","plausibleInterpretations","unresolvedQuestions","scenarioState","providerConfig"].forEach(k => { expect(a).toHaveProperty(k); expect(b).toHaveProperty(k); });
});
it("A and B have identical admitted evidence", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(deepEqual(a.supportedEvidence, b.supportedEvidence)).toBe(true);
});
it("A and B have identical eligible Findings", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(deepEqual(a.findings, b.findings)).toBe(true);
});
it("A and B have identical fixed plausibleInterpretations", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(deepEqual(a.plausibleInterpretations, b.plausibleInterpretations)).toBe(true);
});
it("fixed plausible interpretation matches canonical value exactly", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false);
expect(a.plausibleInterpretations).toHaveLength(1);
expect(a.plausibleInterpretations[0]).toBe(FIXED_PLAUSIBLE);
});
it("A and B reference the same progressed investigation state", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(deepEqual(a.scenarioState, b.scenarioState)).toBe(true);
});
it("provider/model configuration is identical for A and B", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(a.providerConfig.provider).toBe(b.providerConfig.provider);
expect(a.providerConfig.model).toBe(b.providerConfig.model);
});
it("A does not expose unresolved Open Questions (hidden)", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false);
expect(a.unresolvedQuestions).toHaveLength(0);
});
it("B exposes exactly the canonical unresolved Open Questions", () => {
const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
const fu = fixture.situationGraph.nodes.filter(n => n.kind === "unknown" && n.status === "unknown");
expect(b.unresolvedQuestions).toHaveLength(fu.length);
for (const node of fu) { const found = b.unresolvedQuestions.find(uq => uq.id === node.id); expect(found).toBeDefined(); expect(found.label).toBe(node.label); expect(found.description).toBe(node.description); }
});
it("only unresolved visibility differs between A and B", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(deepEqual(a.supportedEvidence, b.supportedEvidence)).toBe(true);
expect(deepEqual(a.findings, b.findings)).toBe(true);
expect(deepEqual(a.plausibleInterpretations, b.plausibleInterpretations)).toBe(true);
expect(deepEqual(a.scenarioState, b.scenarioState)).toBe(true);
expect(deepEqual(a.providerConfig, b.providerConfig)).toBe(true);
expect(a.unresolvedQuestions).not.toEqual(b.unresolvedQuestions);
});
it("fixed plausible interpretation is not admitted evidence", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false);
for (const e of a.supportedEvidence) { expect(e.label).not.toContain(FIXED_PLAUSIBLE); expect(["known","supported"]).toContain(e.status); }
});
it("unresolved questions are not admitted evidence", () => {
const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
for (const uq of b.unresolvedQuestions) { const fn = fixture.situationGraph.nodes.find(n => n.id === uq.id); expect(fn.status).toBe("unknown"); expect(fn.kind).toBe("unknown"); }
});
it("unresolved questions are not plausibleInterpretations", () => {
const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
for (const uq of b.unresolvedQuestions) { expect(b.plausibleInterpretations).not.toContain(uq.label); expect(b.plausibleInterpretations[0]).toBe(FIXED_PLAUSIBLE); }
});
it("no fixture node conflates unresolved and evidence categories", () => {
for (const node of fixture.situationGraph.nodes) {
if (node.kind === "unknown" && node.status === "unknown") expect(["known","supported"]).not.toContain(node.status);
else if (["known","supported"].includes(node.status)) expect(node.kind).not.toBe("unknown");
}
});
it("inputs are constructed purely from fixture without provider or model dependency", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false); const b = buildABInputs(fixture, true);
expect(typeof a.supportedEvidence).toBe("object");
expect(typeof a.findings).toBe("object");
expect(typeof a.plausibleInterpretations).toBe("object");
expect(typeof a.unresolvedQuestions).toBe("object");
});
it("fixed plausible interpretation carries NON-EVIDENCE epistemic status", () => {
const a = buildABInputs(fixture, false);
expect(a.plausibleInterpretations).toHaveLength(1);
expect(a.plausibleInterpretations[0]).toBe(FIXED_PLAUSIBLE);
const el = a.supportedEvidence.map(e => e.label.toLowerCase());
const il = FIXED_PLAUSIBLE.toLowerCase();
for (const label of el) expect(label).not.toContain(il);
});
it("fixture has the minimum required content for A/B comparison", () => {
const sg = fixture.situationGraph;
expect(sg.nodes.filter(n => ["known","supported"].includes(n.status)).length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
expect(sg.nodes.filter(n => n.kind === "unknown" && n.status === "unknown").length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
expect(fixture.findings.filter(f => f.status === "provisional" && f.userDisposition === null).length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
});
});