feat: back next questions with explicit graph unknowns

tests/graph/apply-proposal.test.js

@@ -1133,6 +1133,9 @@ describe("applyValidatedProposal", () => {
     expect(result.resolvedReasoningNodeIds).toEqual([
       "reasoning:comparability",
     ]);
+    expect(result.emergentReasoningNodeCreated).toBe(true);
+    expect(result.emergentReasoningNodeId).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(result.emergentReasoningNodeReason).toContain("backed by the graph");
     expect(result.previousReasoningState.comparabilityStatus).toBe("uncertain");
     expect(result.reasoningState).toMatchObject({
       comparabilityStatus: "confirmed",
@@ -1142,6 +1145,7 @@ describe("applyValidatedProposal", () => {
     expect(result.reasoningState.comparabilityEvidence).toEqual([
       comparabilityUnknownId,
     ]);
+    expect(result.selectedQuestion?.nodeId).toBe(result.newActiveUnknownNodeId);
     expect(result.selectedQuestion?.question).toMatch(
       /^What changed during that period that could help explain why /,
     );
@@ -1163,6 +1167,27 @@ describe("applyValidatedProposal", () => {
           "The observations concern connected business signals but do not establish a direct contradiction or cause.",
       },
     ]);
+    const emergentNode = result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
+      (node) => node.id === result.emergentReasoningNodeId,
+    );
+    expect(emergentNode).toMatchObject({
+      kind: "unknown",
+      status: "unknown",
+      confidence: "medium",
+    });
+    expect(emergentNode.description.toLowerCase()).toContain("because");
+    expect(
+      result.updatedSituationGraph.edges.filter(
+        (edge) => edge.toNodeId === result.emergentReasoningNodeId,
+      ),
+    ).not.toEqual([]);
+    expect(
+      result.updatedSituationGraph.edges.some(
+        (edge) =>
+          edge.toNodeId === result.emergentReasoningNodeId &&
+          edge.relationship === "causes",
+      ),
+    ).toBe(false);
     expect(
       JSON.stringify(
         result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.find(
@@ -1171,4 +1196,40 @@ describe("applyValidatedProposal", () => {
       ),
     ).toBe(originalUnrelatedNode);
   });
+
+  it("reuses an equivalent existing unresolved reasoning unknown instead of creating a duplicate", () => {
+    const { graph, proposal } = makeComparabilityUpdateFixture();
+    graph.nodes.push(
+      makeNode({
+        id: "n-existing-explanation",
+        label:
+          "Explanation for why Revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period",
+        description:
+          "Need to understand what change or event could explain why these observations differ, because that is needed to investigate their relationship.",
+        kind: "unknown",
+        status: "unknown",
+        confidence: "medium",
+      }),
+    );
+
+    const result = applyValidatedProposal({
+      situationGraph: graph,
+      proposal,
+      previousQuestion:
+        "Were these figures measured on the same basis and at the same scale?",
+      answer:
+        "Yes. Both figures cover the same accounting period and are taken from the same management accounts.",
+    });
+
+    expect(result.success).toBe(true);
+    expect(result.emergentReasoningNodeCreated).toBe(false);
+    expect(result.emergentReasoningNodeId).toBe("n-existing-explanation");
+    expect(result.newActiveUnknownNodeId).toBe("n-existing-explanation");
+    expect(result.selectedQuestion?.nodeId).toBe("n-existing-explanation");
+    expect(
+      result.updatedSituationGraph.nodes.filter(
+        (node) => node.label === graph.nodes.at(-1).label,
+      ),
+    ).toHaveLength(1);
+  });
 });

tests/graph/orchestrator.test.js

@@ -1046,7 +1046,12 @@ describe("lib/graph/orchestrator startCase", () => {
       relationshipStatus: "potentially_related",
       relationshipAssessed: true,
       resolvedReasoningNodeIds: ["reasoning:comparability"],
+      emergentReasoningNodeCreated: true,
     });
+    expect(result.diagnostics.emergentReasoningNodeId).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(result.diagnostics.emergentReasoningNodeReason).toContain(
+      "backed by the graph",
+    );
     expect(result.diagnostics.reasoningStagesBefore).toEqual([
       {
         stage: "comparability",
@@ -1074,6 +1079,7 @@ describe("lib/graph/orchestrator startCase", () => {
           "The observations concern connected business signals but do not establish a direct contradiction or cause.",
       },
     ]);
+    expect(result.selectedQuestion?.nodeId).toBe(result.newActiveUnknownNodeId);
     expect(result.selectedQuestion?.question).toMatch(
       /^What changed during that period that could help explain why /,
     );

tests/ui/scenario-form.test.jsx

@@ -115,32 +115,46 @@ function makeUpdateSuccess(overrides = {}) {
         },
         {
           id: "n-next-unknown",
-          label: "Commercial value definition",
-          description: "Need a definition because the decision depends on it.",
+          label:
+            "Explanation for why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period",
+          description:
+            "Need to understand what change or event could explain why these observations differ, because that is needed to investigate their relationship.",
           kind: "unknown",
           status: "unknown",
-          confidence: "high",
+          confidence: "medium",
           value: null,
           unit: null,
         },
       ],
-      edges: [],
+      edges: [
+        {
+          id: "e-rel-next",
+          fromNodeId: "n-conclusion",
+          toNodeId: "n-next-unknown",
+          relationship: "depends_on",
+          confidence: "medium",
+          description:
+            "This unresolved explanation arises from the now-assessed relationship between the observations.",
+        },
+      ],
     },
     proposal: {
       addedNodes: [
         {
           id: "n-next-unknown",
-          label: "Commercial value definition",
-          description: "Need a definition because the decision depends on it.",
+          label:
+            "Explanation for why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period",
+          description:
+            "Need to understand what change or event could explain why these observations differ, because that is needed to investigate their relationship.",
           kind: "unknown",
           status: "unknown",
-          confidence: "high",
+          confidence: "medium",
           value: null,
           unit: null,
           evidenceIds: [],
-          dependsOn: [],
+          dependsOn: ["n-conclusion"],
           affects: [],
-          parentId: null,
+          parentId: "n-conclusion",
           childIds: [],
         },
       ],
@@ -153,19 +167,27 @@ function makeUpdateSuccess(overrides = {}) {
       affectedNodeIds: ["n-conclusion"],
       selectedQuestion: {
         nodeId: "n-next-unknown",
-        question: "How should commercial value be defined for this decision?",
-        reason: "A narrower consequential uncertainty remains.",
+        question:
+          "What changed during that period that could help explain why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period?",
+        reason:
+          "Formulated as a neutral clarification question because no narrower investigation strategy clearly applied.",
       },
     },
     selectedQuestion: {
       nodeId: "n-next-unknown",
-      question: "How should commercial value be defined for this decision?",
-      reason: "A narrower consequential uncertainty remains.",
+      question:
+        "What changed during that period that could help explain why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period?",
+      reason:
+        "Formulated as a neutral clarification question because no narrower investigation strategy clearly applied.",
     },
     affectedNodeIds: ["n-conclusion"],
     resolvedUnknownNodeIds: ["n-unknown"],
     previousActiveUnknownNodeId: "n-unknown",
     newActiveUnknownNodeId: "n-next-unknown",
+    emergentReasoningNodeCreated: true,
+    emergentReasoningNodeId: "n-next-unknown",
+    emergentReasoningNodeReason:
+      "Created a new unresolved reasoning unknown so the next justified question is backed by the graph.",
     previousReasoningState: {
       comparabilityStatus: "uncertain",
       reasoningStages: [
@@ -404,7 +426,9 @@ describe("graph-backed UI rendering", () => {
     );
 
     expect(html).toContain("Newly surfaced unknowns");
-    expect(html).toContain("Commercial value definition");
+    expect(html).toContain(
+      "Explanation for why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period",
+    );
   });
 
   it("affected nodes render", () => {
@@ -432,7 +456,7 @@ describe("graph-backed UI rendering", () => {
     );
 
     expect(html).toContain(
-      "How should commercial value be defined for this decision?",
+      "What changed during that period that could help explain why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period?",
     );
   });
 
@@ -469,7 +493,9 @@ describe("graph-backed UI rendering", () => {
     expect(html).toContain("Previous active unknown");
     expect(html).toContain("Complaint rate denominator");
     expect(html).toContain("New active unknown");
-    expect(html).toContain("Commercial value definition");
+    expect(html).toContain(
+      "Explanation for why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period",
+    );
   });
 
   it("successful update renders prior and new state together", () => {
@@ -488,7 +514,7 @@ describe("graph-backed UI rendering", () => {
     expect(html).toContain("New active unknown");
     expect(html).toContain("Next question");
     expect(html).toContain(
-      "How should commercial value be defined for this decision?",
+      "What changed during that period that could help explain why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period?",
     );
   });
 
@@ -543,7 +569,9 @@ describe("graph-backed UI rendering", () => {
       />,
     );
 
-    expect(html).toContain("How should commercial value be defined for this decision?");
+    expect(html).toContain(
+      "What changed during that period that could help explain why revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period?",
+    );
   });
 
   it("raw ids remain only in collapsed proposal details", () => {