feat: evaluate deterministic cross-branch corroboration

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2026-08-03 07:19:20 +01:00
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@@ -149,6 +149,40 @@ Deterministic propagation rules now enforce:
- status changes do not raise confidence on their own
- parent resolution still requires the separate completion rule
## Cross-branch corroboration
The next confidence experiment adds deterministic branch interaction checks without changing the graph model.
The engine now distinguishes between:
- **multiple evidence**: more than one branch exists
- **independent corroboration**: distinct resolved branches support the same parent without sharing the same evidence key
- **duplicate evidence**: the same evidence key appears through multiple branches and must not be double-counted
- **conflicting evidence**: branches support incompatible positions, such as `recognised correctly` vs `recognised incorrectly`
Deterministic branch rules:
- corroboration only counts when branches are distinct and their evidence sources differ
- duplicate evidence groups never count as corroboration
- conflicts cap conclusion confidence and prevent a higher confidence upgrade
- independent branches remain interaction-neutral
Additional diagnostics now expose:
- `corroboratingBranchCount`
- `conflictingBranchCount`
- `duplicateEvidenceCount`
- `independentBranchCount`
- `interactionSummary`
- `confidenceAdjustmentReason`
Observed effect:
- independent corroboration can raise `evidenceConfidence`
- duplicate evidence produces no extra confidence increase
- conflicting evidence lowers or caps `conclusionConfidence`
- completeness rules still dominate whether a parent may become highly justified
Example progression:
- parent before: `unknown`, `medium`