docs: archive historical Confidence Engine evidence
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# v0.6 Comparability Experiment
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## Hypothesis
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The engine should confirm that observations are comparable before treating their difference as a contradiction that needs explanatory follow-up.
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## Fixtures
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1. Revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period.
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2. Complaints increased. Production increased.
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3. Average delivery time decreased by 25%, but order cancellations increased.
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4. Customer satisfaction increased, but complaints increased.
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5. Temperature increased. Ice melted.
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6. Sales doubled. Sales doubled.
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## Results
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- The first four scenarios repeated the same failure pattern: contradiction-level investigation could begin before comparability was established.
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- A deterministic comparability gate corrected that by producing one comparison question first.
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- Confirmed comparability did not by itself imply contradiction.
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- Temperature increased / Ice melted was reclassified as a compatible relationship, so no contradiction question was asked.
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- Sales doubled / Sales doubled was reclassified as duplicate observations, so no follow-up question was asked.
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## Relationship classification stage
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After comparability assessment, observations now pass through a deterministic relationship classification stage:
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- `contradictory`
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- `compatible`
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- `potentially_related`
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- `duplicate`
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- `insufficient_information`
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## Whether comparability should become a permanent reasoning stage
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Yes, in minimal deterministic form.
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The repeated pattern appeared in four scenarios, so a small pre-contradiction comparability assessment is justified.
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## Two-step experiment result
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A comparison question is useful only if its answer advances the reasoning stage rather than merely adding more text.
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In the revenue-versus-cash scenario, the first question now confirms whether the figures are comparable, and the answer resolves that existing uncertainty instead of creating a parallel note. After that update, the engine progresses from comparability assessment to cautious relationship assessment and can select one broad non-expert follow-up question.
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Every justified next question should correspond to an explicit unresolved graph node.
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The earlier fallback-only path has now been removed from the normal successful progression. After comparability is resolved and a further investigation question is justified, the engine creates or reuses an explicit unresolved reasoning unknown and lets deterministic selection and question formulation proceed through the standard graph pipeline. A fallback is now only acceptable as an explicit failure case, not as the normal source of the next question.
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