confidence-engine/docs/experiment-60b46.md

Experiment 60B.46 — Direct closure metadata evidence in live harness

Date: 2026-08-14 Branch: feature/closure-metadata-capture-v0.39

Purpose

Confirm that when the final material customer-signing uncertainty is resolved, the production runtime directly returns:

• finalActiveUnknownNodeId = null
• finalSelectedQuestion = null

using the explicit harness fields added in 60B.45/46 rather than inferring from field omission.

Hypothesis

A successful result should show:

n_enterprise_customer_signing: resolved
n_product_launch_decision: known or resolved
addedNodes: []
addedEdges: []
finalActiveUnknownNodeId: null
finalSelectedQuestion: null
both existing options preserved (no duplication)

No directional recommendation is required.

Method

One bounded live update using the 60B.44 pre-anchored fixture:

• Fixture: tests/fixtures/pre-anchored-product-launch-customer-signing.json
• Mode: updateOnly (single Update, no Start)
• Answer: "Yes. The enterprise customer has now confirmed in writing that they will sign if we launch this year, so the £700,000 of expected annual revenue from them is confirmed. There are no other material uncertainties between launching this year and waiting twelve months."
• Model: qwen-claude:latest via Ollama (http://192.168.1.111:11434)

Call accounting

startCalls: 0
updateCalls: 1
totalCalls: 1
retries: 0

Results

HTTP

• Stage: accepted (no rejection path)

Structural mutation

Field	Value
updatedNodes	2 nodes: n_enterprise_customer_signing (unknown→resolved), n_product_launch_decision (unknown→resolved)
resolvedUnknownNodeIds	["n_enterprise_customer_signing", "n_product_launch_decision"]
addedNodes	[]
addedEdges	[]

Node final states

Node ID	Kind	Status
n_product_launch_state	state	provisional
opt_launch_this_year	option	known
opt_wait_twelve_months	option	known
n_product_launch_decision	unknown	resolved
n_enterprise_customer_signing	unknown	resolved

Direct closure metadata (60B.46 harness fields)

finalActiveUnknownNodeId: null
finalSelectedQuestion: null

Identity preservation

• Decision node (n_product_launch_decision): PRESERVED — status changed to resolved, id unchanged
• Launch option (opt_launch_this_year): PRESERVED — status known, id unchanged
• Wait option (opt_wait_twelve_months): PRESERVED — status known, id unchanged

Assessment

Criterion	Result
Customer factor	RESOLVED IN PLACE
Decision state	RESOLVED
Decision identity	PRESERVED
Launch option	PRESERVED
Wait option	PRESERVED
Active lifecycle	NULL — CLEARED
Final question	NULL — DECISION COMPLETE
New uncertainty discipline	NONE

60B.44 comparison

Field	60B.44 (inferred)	60B.46 (direct)
activeUnknownNodeId	inferred from omission	null — directly exposed
selectedQuestion	inferred from omission	null — directly exposed

The important difference is measurement:

• 60B.44: active/final question inferred from omission
• 60B.46: active/final question directly exposed as raw values

Classification: A — LIVE CLEAN CLOSURE DIRECTLY CONFIRMED

All criteria directly observed:

• ✅ customer factor resolves in place
• ✅ decision closes in place
• ✅ both options preserved
• ✅ no added unknowns
• ✅ finalActiveUnknownNodeId = null (direct)
• ✅ finalSelectedQuestion = null (direct)

What this proves

The production confidence engine correctly performs a clean graph-level closure when the final material uncertainty is resolved:

1. Both the customer-signing unknown and the central decision unknown are resolved in place (no duplication, no loss).
2. The harness-observed activeUnknownNodeId is explicitly cleared to null, confirming the engine's internal active-target pointer is zeroed.
3. The harness-observed selectedQuestion is explicitly null, confirming no follow-up question remains pending.
4. No new uncertainties are introduced (zero addedNodes/edges).

What remains weak or unproven

• Closure under contradictory/unexpected inputs (this test used a clean, expected-resolution path).
• Multiple simultaneous uncertainty resolution in a single update.
• Full-suite regression coverage for the closure metadata harness layer itself (60B.45 added focused unit tests: 67/67 pass).
• Live closure verification on production hosts beyond localhost.