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v0.6 Selection Influence Experiment

Hypothesis

The initial unknown selected for the revenue-versus-cash scenario may be driven more by graph structure, more by semantic keyword matches, or by both together.

Scenario

Revenue increased by 18%, but cash in the bank fell over the same period.

Actual selected node

  • Node ID: nqdzobz
  • Label: Magnitude and nature of cash outflows (operating expenses, debt repayments, capex, or working capital shifts).
  • Deterministic investigation strategy: definition
  • Deterministic question: What evidence would resolve whether magnitude and nature of cash outflows (operating expenses, debt repayments, capex, or working capital shifts). is true?

Structural contribution

  • Downstream dependency count: 0
  • Prerequisite position: no unresolved prerequisites; count 0
  • Dependency ordering / centrality: no candidate had downstream dependants or dependency depth advantage in the live graph

Semantic contribution

  • Objective: false
  • Actor: false
  • Criteria: false
  • Measurement: false
  • Terminology: false
  • Constraint: false
  • Pricing: false
  • Implementation: false
  • Optimisation: false
  • Speculative: false
  • Contribution list: only downstream_dependencies was present, with delta 0

Counterfactual results

  • Live-shaped ordering: nqdzobz ranked above niewza, but both had score 0, downstream 0, and unresolved prerequisites 0
  • Links removed: ordering stayed the same, because the live graph already provided no differentiating structure between the two unknowns
  • Wording neutralised: ordering flipped to the first unknown by neutral label order (Unknown A before Unknown B), showing the outcome remained tie-break-driven rather than structure-driven

Conclusion

For this scenario, the actual winner was not selected because of graph structure and not selected because of semantic keyword weights. The live diagnostics show a complete tie on score, downstream influence, and prerequisite position, with every semantic match category false for both candidates. The winner was therefore chosen by the final tie-break rule, label_asc.

Is a scoring change justified?

Not from this single experiment alone. The result shows a diagnostic gap for this scenario, but this task does not justify a scoring change by itself, and no scoring change is made.