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confidence-engine/docs/experiment-60b81.md
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Experiment 60B.81 — Live Confirmation-Gated State B Path Confirmed

Date: 2026-08-15 Branch: feature/decision-closure-ownership-v0.47 Preceded by: Experiment 60B.80 (deterministic confirmation-gated closure enforcement implemented) Type: Bounded live observation — single update call

Objective

Answer: Does the exact no-confirmation live case now stay open and ask the sufficiency question?

This is the remaining proof after 60B.80 committed deterministic stripping. The model-led terminal closure bug from 60B.74/60B.76 should be fully eliminated.

Method

  • Fixture: tests/fixtures/pre-anchored-product-launch-customer-signing.json
  • Input: "The enterprise customer has now confirmed in writing that they will not sign if we launch this year, so the £700,000 of expected annual revenue from them will not be received."
  • Crucially absent: any phrase equivalent to "no other material uncertainty" / "nothing else remains uncertain"
  • Mode: updateOnly (1 update call via production HTTP route)

Result

Classification: A — LIVE CONFIRMATION-GATED STATE B PATH CONFIRMED

Observed

Field Value
Customer status resolved
Customer value "Will not sign"
Decision status unknown (non-terminal)
Decision value null
resolvedUnknownNodeIds ["n_enterprise_customer_signing"] (decision NOT present)
finalActiveUnknownNodeId n_product_launch_decision
selectedQuestionTemplate decision_threshold_sufficiency_confirmation
Question text "Is there anything else material that could change which option is better?"

What This Proves

  1. The 60B.80 stripping gate prevents premature model-led terminal closure of the parent decision when no explicit sufficiency confirmation is present in the user's answer.
  2. State B fires naturally: focused sufficiency confirmation/discovery question targeting n_product_launch_decision.
  3. Customer resolution with negative "will not sign" meaning is preserved independently — non-parent work survives the strip.
  4. No spurious structural uncertainty was introduced.

What Remains Unproven by This Run

  • Raw model closure intent (whether the model itself proposed terminal status or whether the strip caught it). The harness exposes post-reconciliation/applied proposal only. Classification is "ENFORCEMENT EFFECT OBSERVED" rather than raw compliance.
  • Explicit confirmation path still works through the gate (covered in 60B.80 unit tests but not live-tested here).