confidence-engine/docs/experiment-60b29.md

Experiment 60B.29 — Live Validation of Uncertainty Proposition Coverage

Branch: feature/proposition-prefix-coverage-v0.31
Starting HEAD: f94d47d813fef0be062a263205a83fbedbafd7f3
Date: 2026-08-14
Status: COMPLETE

Objective

Run the exact bounded live continuation once to determine whether the full live path now preserves the explicit whether ... proposition for the product-launch customer-signing case after 60B.28's deterministic prefix-coverage extension.

Configured Model

qwen-claude:latest

Configured Ollama Base URL

http://192.168.1.111:11434

Execution

Single committed harness invocation only:

FIXTURE_MODE=updateOnly \
FIXTURE_PATH=tests/fixtures/pre-anchored-product-launch-options.json \
ANSWER_2="The revenue and launch-cost estimates are good enough for the decision. The remaining issue is one prospective enterprise customer. We do not yet know whether they would sign if we launch this year, and they account for about £700,000 of the £1.2 million expected annual revenue." \
CONFIDENCE_ENGINE_BASE_URL=http://127.0.0.1:3000 \
node scripts/reproduce-multi-turn-investigation.mjs

Call accounting from the same run:

startCalls: 0
updateCalls: 1
totalCalls: 1
Retries: 0
Second live invocation: NO

Recoverable First-Run Output

The recoverable terminal output from the single permitted invocation showed:

updatedNodes: []
resolvedUnknownNodeIds: []
addedNodes: [
  {
    "id": "n_enterprise_customer_signing",
    "label": "Prospective enterprise customer signing status",
    "description": "Uncertainty over whether the prospective enterprise customer will sign if we launch this year, because their contract accounts for approximately £700,000 of the expected first-year revenue and could materially flip the net-value comparison.",
    "kind": "unknown",
    "status": "unknown",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "dependsOn": ["n_product_launch_decision"]
  }
]
addedEdges: [
  {
    "id": "e-dec-to-customer-signing",
    "fromNodeId": "n_product_launch_decision",
    "toNodeId": "n_enterprise_customer_signing",
    "relationship": "depends_on",
    "confidence": "high"
  }
]
structuralActionRequired: null
selectedQuestion: "What outcome would demonstrate enough value to justify launching?"
selectedQuestion.nodeId: "n_enterprise_customer_signing"

Resulting persistent graph from the same run:

n_product_launch_decision remains unknown
n_enterprise_customer_signing exists as unknown/unknown
no unrelated new uncertainty appears

The recovered output did not include the earlier accepted-path HTTP and stage lines, so those values are not directly recoverable from the same captured artifact.

Assessment

Core reasoning chain

PRESERVED

• decision remains unresolved (n_product_launch_decision stays unknown)
• customer-signing factor survives as a first-class unknown (n_enterprise_customer_signing)
• material factor remains the final target (selectedQuestion.nodeId = n_enterprise_customer_signing)
• no unrelated uncertainty invented

Customer-signing factor

FIRST-CLASS UNKNOWN

The live proposal created a dedicated unknown node with its own id, label, description, and structural edge.

Prefix form actually exercised

OTHER

The live customer node description begins:

Uncertainty over whether ...

This is not one of the newly supported 60B.28 prefixes (Unknown whether..., Uncertain whether...) and is also not one of the previously supported exact forms (Uncertainty about whether..., Uncertainty regarding whether...).

Preferred target behaviour

MATERIAL FACTOR PRESERVED

The final target remained the customer-signing factor node.

Full proposition preservation

LOST

The final question does not retain either of the required proposition components:

• customer will sign
• if we launch this year

Instead it asks a generic decision-threshold question:

What outcome would demonstrate enough value to justify launching?

Evidence framing

WRONG

The final question is neither:

• evidence-framed around the customer-signing proposition, nor
• a direct interrogative about customer signing,

but a generic launch-justification question despite the selected node being the customer-signing unknown.

Rationale contamination

NONE

The final question contains no:

• £700,000
• £1.2 million
• annual revenue
• financial impact
• equivalent revenue rationale

Source graph meaning

SOURCE DESCRIPTION PRESERVED

The live node description retains both the proposition and the explanatory rationale in graph state.

60B.27 Comparison

Dimension	60B.27	60B.29
Live node prefix	Unknown whether...	Uncertainty over whether...
Final target	customer-signing factor	customer-signing factor
Proposition preservation	nominalized, partial	lost in final question
Final question shape	evidence-framed nominalized question	generic launch-justification question
Rationale contamination	none	none

60B.27 final question:

What evidence would clarify prospective enterprise customer signing likelihood?

60B.29 final question:

What outcome would demonstrate enough value to justify launching?

Result Classification

C — TARGET PRESERVED, PROPOSITION STILL PARTIAL

The live run preserved the correct material target and decision state, but the final question did not preserve the explicit customer-signing proposition at all.

This run does not confirm the 60B.28 prefix-extension live because the model did not produce either newly-supported prefix form. The live customer node used Uncertainty over whether..., so the new Unknown whether... / Uncertain whether... path was not exercised.

Did 60B.28 Newly-Supported Prefix Handling Fire Live

NO

The live node description did not begin with Unknown whether... or Uncertain whether....

Did the Full Proposition Survive Live

NO

The final question lost both the signing action and the launch-condition clause.

Did the Material Target Remain Stable

YES

The customer-signing factor remained the selected node id.

What Improved Relative to 60B.27

• Nothing on proposition preservation can be claimed from this run.
• Rationale contamination remained absent.
• Material targeting remained stable.

What Remains Weak or Unproven

• The exact 60B.28 live prefix extension remains unproven because the live node did not use Unknown whether... or Uncertain whether....
• The full runtime path can still produce a generic final question even when the material customer-signing factor is selected.
• The divergence between selected target (n_enterprise_customer_signing) and generic final question wording remains unaddressed by this observation-only run.

Production Boundary

Production code changed: NO
Prompt changed: NO
Validator changed: NO
Schema changed: NO
Harness changed: NO
Vitest run: NO
Ollama calls: 1 maximum
Direct API calls: 0
Dev server disturbed: NO