experiment: test decision chain across product launch

2026-08-13 13:04:09 +01:00
parent 43b9e5a35c
commit 229fbfbfd9
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+{
+  "description": "Deterministic pre-anchored product-launch decision-options fixture — cross-domain test of reasoning-chain generalisation.",
+  "scenario": "We are evaluating two product-launch timing options: launching the new software product this year or waiting twelve months.",
+  "unresolved_question": "Which option leaves us better off overall?",
+  "graph": {
+    "centralStatement": "We are evaluating two product-launch timing options: launching the new software product this year or waiting twelve months.",
+    "nodes": [
+      {
+        "id": "n_product_launch_state",
+        "label": "Product launch timing consideration",
+        "description": "Current state: the organisation is evaluating whether to launch the new software product this year or wait twelve months.",
+        "kind": "state",
+        "status": "provisional",
+        "confidence": "high",
+        "value": null,
+        "unit": null,
+        "evidenceIds": [],
+        "dependsOn": [],
+        "affects": [],
+        "parentId": null,
+        "childIds": []
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "opt_launch_this_year",
+        "label": "Launch this year",
+        "description": "Launch the new software product this year. Consequences: £1.2M/year expected additional recurring revenue, £300k one-off launch/support cost.",
+        "kind": "option",
+        "status": "known",
+        "confidence": "high",
+        "value": null,
+        "unit": null,
+        "evidenceIds": [],
+        "dependsOn": [],
+        "affects": [],
+        "parentId": null,
+        "childIds": []
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "opt_wait_twelve_months",
+        "label": "Wait twelve months",
+        "description": "Wait twelve months before launching the product. Consequences: avoids the £300k immediate launch/support cost, forgoes approximately £1.2M of first-year revenue.",
+        "kind": "option",
+        "status": "known",
+        "confidence": "high",
+        "value": null,
+        "unit": null,
+        "evidenceIds": [],
+        "dependsOn": [],
+        "affects": [],
+        "parentId": null,
+        "childIds": []
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "n_product_launch_decision",
+        "label": "Which option leaves us better off overall?",
+        "description": "Uncertainty about which of the two product-launch timing options — launch this year or wait twelve months — provides superior net value for the organisation.",
+        "kind": "unknown",
+        "status": "unknown",
+        "confidence": "medium",
+        "value": null,
+        "unit": null,
+        "evidenceIds": [],
+        "dependsOn": [],
+        "affects": [],
+        "parentId": null,
+        "childIds": []
+      }
+    ],
+    "edges": [
+      {
+        "id": "e-opt-launch-to-dec",
+        "fromNodeId": "opt_launch_this_year",
+        "toNodeId": "n_product_launch_decision",
+        "relationship": "contained_in",
+        "confidence": "high",
+        "description": "Launch this year option is a candidate for the product launch decision"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "e-opt-wait-to-dec",
+        "fromNodeId": "opt_wait_twelve_months",
+        "toNodeId": "n_product_launch_decision",
+        "relationship": "contained_in",
+        "confidence": "high",
+        "description": "Wait twelve months option is a candidate for the product launch decision"
+      }
+    ],
+    "activeUnknownNodeId": "n_product_launch_decision",
+    "resolvedNodeIds": [],
+    "currentSummary": "Two product-launch timing options evaluated; net-value comparison unresolved.",
+    "reasoningState": {
+      "comparabilityStatus": null,
+      "relationshipStatus": null,
+      "relationshipAssessed": false,
+      "contradictionReasoningAllowed": true,
+      "reasoningStages": []
+    }
+  }
+}