docs(confidence-engine): record product-launch epistemic A/B result — 4-iteration loop complete

Controlled A/B (zero-Findings scenario, Qwen): unresolved uncertainty exposure
did not contaminate supported understanding or plausible interpretation.
No production changes. No report semantic changes.
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2026-09-30 17:22:52 +01:00
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commit 7c1d657761
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@@ -309,7 +309,22 @@ scripts/overview-experiment-helper.cjs — canonical overview live helper
- **visible**: appends unresolved questions as separate NON-EVIDENCE section to baseline prompt
- Apparatus invariant proven deterministically: A/B evidence, findings, plausibleInterpretations, scenario state are identical; only unresolved visibility differs.
- Production `lib/graph/investigation-overview-synthesis.js` unchanged.
- **No live A/B calls executed yet.** Next boundary: Call A (hidden) with product-launch fixture.
- **Controlled A/B completed:** product-launch zero-Findings case, 2 live calls (51s hidden, 54s visible).
**Result:** Supported understanding materially unchanged; both calls produce the same core finding (product ready enough for launch, one large enterprise client relevant). No plausible interpretations in either variant (helper called with `[]` plausibleInterpretations — correct for this fixture's initial state). Unresolved customer-signing and competitor uncertainty remained distinct, unanswered, non-evidence in B. Neither call promoted unresolved material into supported understanding or plausible interpretation.
**Contamination classification:** NONE
- No supported claim added or removed
- No qualification/certainty shift beyond minor phrasing variation (~17 chars)
- Customer-signing uncertainty: NOT promoted to evidence, NOT interpreted/answered
- Competitor uncertainty: NOT promoted to evidence, NOT interpreted/answered
- Unresolved not prioritised in either call
**What this establishes:** Under controlled product-launch conditions (zero Findings), exposing unresolved future-dependent Open Questions as a separate NON-EVIDENCE section does not cause the model to use that uncertainty as evidence or merge it into plausible interpretation. The epistemic boundary holds for Qwen under this scenario shape.
**What it does not establish:** Does not prove universality across other scenarios, other models, or when plausibleInterpretations are non-empty. Does not generalize to manufacturing scenarios (with findings). One scenario shape only.
### Zero-Finding Report Experiment Case (Loop 2/3)
### Zero-Finding Report Experiment Case (Loop 2/3)